Hunt, Jennifer. 2006. «Do Teen Births Keep American Crime High? ». Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 49, no 2, p. 533-566.
Intentions : « I assess to what extent international patterns in teenage birth rates can explain why the United States had the highest crime rates of developed countries in the 1980s and why U.S. relative crime rates subsequently fell. » (p. 533)
Échantillon/Matériau : « For this analysis I use individual-level victimization, socioeconomic, and demographic information from the 4 years of the [International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS)], supplemented with country-level data from other sources. In addition to the effects of potential victim characteristics and the proportion of young people born to a teen mother, I consider the effects of age structure, prison population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, income inequality, and immigration at the country level. I identify the effect of the country-level variables from within country variation. » (p. 534)
Type de traitement des données : Analyse statistique
« The United States has a high teenage birth rate relative to other developed countries. Children of teenagers experience more difficult childhoods than other children and hence may be more likely subsequently to be victims or perpetrators of crimes. [...]Using internationally comparable crime rates spanning 1989–2000, I find that assault rates are increased by an increase in the proportion of young adults who were born to a teenage mother. Intimate partner assault, a crime most commonly occurring among young adults, is most affected. Variation in teenage birth rates fully explain the initially high U.S. assault level and prevented the subsequent fall in assault rate from being 20 percent greater. I also present evidence on larceny and burglary. » (p. 533)