1. Objectifs

Intentions :
« This thesis has focused on the demographic, economic and social factors that determined fertility change in the province from 1931 to 1991. To show the impact of modernization on fertility, an age-period-cohort analysis was undertaken. » (p. 106)

Questions/Hypothèses :
« It is expected that social and economic events influence cohort fertility through socialization from one generation to the next. Pre-Quiet Revolution generations, with their traditional pronatal social history, would be expected to socialize subsequent generations toward having larger families. However, these pronatal tendencies could have been over ridden by the experience of hard times during the economic depression of the late 1920s and early 1930s. This is to say that cohorts that experienced the depression may have socialized the next generation of women to have less children, even though Quebec remained a traditional society, valuing high fertility. On the other hand, Quiet-Revolution cohorts experienced modernization and the erosion of traditional values. Such a history could lead each generation of women to socialize subsequent generations to accept the need to have fewer children. Alternatively, the economic prosperity of the post World War 11 era, may have resulted in socialization for more children that continued with the Quiet Revolution cohorts. The timing and pattern of cohort effects would indicate whether modernization or economic past history influenced socialization for more or less children for each generation of Quebec women. » (pp. 45-46)

2. Méthode

Échantillon/Matériau :
« The dependant variable for this study is the age-specific fertility rate. There are seven age groupings and thirteen periods, giving 91 lines of data. There are also nineteen identifiable birth cohorts, calculated by the number of diagonal segments representing distinct generations. » (p. 43)

Type de traitement de données :
Analyse statistique

3. Résumé

« Historically, fertility has been central to the survival of French canadian culture in Quebec. Recently, the province has gone from having one of the highest fertility rates in the world to having one of the lowest. These changes in fertility have coincided with the socio-economic transformation (modernization) of Quebec society that took place gradually over time, and more intensively during and after the Quiet Revolution of the 1960s. At the present time, it is still questionable as to wherther the province will be able so bring its fertility levels back to replacement levels, not withstanding government efforts to do so. This thesis explains fertility change in Quebec from 1931-1991 at the aggregate level. Chapters 2 and 3 describe the historical details of Quebec before and after the Quiet Revolution. This historical analysis underscores how fertility is closely tied to the survival of Quebec culture and the French language, as well as to the status of women in Quebec society. In Chapter 4, the modernization thesis is used to understand the substantial decline in fertility of Quebec women in the post-quiet Revolution period. A modified version of the modernization thesis is presented that addresses the decline in fertility due to the structural changes of modernization, and a more gradual diffusion of values supporting smaller family size. In Chapter 5, an age-period-cohort analysis of fertility is conducted in order to describe the abrupt structural changes (period effects) and the more gradual process of intergenerational socialization of women toward smaller families (cohort effects). Based on the greater impact of period. Chapter 6 provides a decomposition (path) analysis of period effects on age-specific fertility in Quebec. The analysis draws on a theory that links modernization to social exchange, marriage and fertility. Finally, a conclusion is presented in Chapter 7 that addresses methodological issues raised by the statistical analyses, theoretical issues based on the findings and suggestions for further research into this important problem. » (p. R)