1. Objectifs

Intentions :
Explain the variance in fertility during the Quiet Revolution

Questions/Hypothèses :
« Our view is that in Quebec, cohorts of women would differ significantly in their fertility patterns depending on their time of birth, whether prior to or after the Quiet Revolution. Decisions regarding family formation and childbearing for cohorts of women born prior to the Quiet Revolution, would have presumably been influenced by the traditional values and norms that characterized this time of Quebec’s history. Thus, pre-Quiet revolution cohorts, with their traditional pronatalist social history, would be expected to socialize subsequent generations toward having larger families. Conversely, Quiet Revolution generations of women were socialized during the time which is associated with massive structural and ideational changes in Quebec. Such a history, which emphasized secular individualism, could lead each generation of women to socialize subsequent generations to accept the need to have fewer children. » (p. 145) « In your sketch, cohorts 1 to 11 are defined as pre-Quiet Revolution generations and cohorts 12 to 19 Quiet revolution generations. We expect that women whose primary socialization occured prior to the Quiet Revolution, should have different fertility behavior than women who went through primary socialization during and after the Quiet Revolution. » (p. 147)

2. Méthode

Échantillon/Matériau :
« There are seven age groups and thirteen time periods. There are also 19 identifiable birth cohorts derived by the diagonal elements of the table. » (p. 146)

Type de traitement de données :
Analyse statistique

3. Résumé

« The predominantly catholic province of Quebec currently has one of the lowest Total Fertility Rates ever recorded, representing a dramatic reversal of its historically high fertility levels. These changes in fertility have coincided with the rapid modernization of Quebec society, a gradual process, but which intensified in the mid to late parts of the 1950s. An age-period-cohort analysis of fertility in Quebec covering the period 1931 to 1991 indicates that much of the variation in childbearing is explained by age effects; though both cohort and period are also significant. The substantial decline in Quebec’s fertility after 1960 can be attributed to period conditions in the society, affecting each age category with aspect to fertility. We take this finding as denoting support for the proposition that fertility responds mainly to period-specific shocks. » (p. 136)