1. Objectifs

Intentions :
« The main objective of this paper is to address, by using Canadian Census data, the issue of quantum vs tempo effects by exploiting a significant reform in the Family Allowances program introduced by the Canadian federal government in the mid-1970s. » (p. 373)

2. Méthode

Échantillon/Matériau :
1976, 1981, 1986, and 1991 Public Use Microdata Files on Families (PUMF-F)
« To study the short-term impact of the Family Allowance Program, we select two subsamples: one made of families in which the female is aged between 25 and 34 and the other when the female is aged between 30 and 39. [...] To evaluate the long-term impact of the policy change, we use information in 1991 and 1986 on the two cohorts of women studied for the 1976–81 period. Thus, we focus on families in which the female is aged either between 35 and 44 or between 40 and 49 in 1991. » (p. 381)

Instruments :
Questionnaire

Type de traitement des données :
Analyse statistique

3. Résumé

Given the decentralized nature of the Canadian federation, Quebec was allowed to modify the federal program by giving stronger financial incentives to families which already had dependants. Since the cohorts of women exposed to that reform had largely completed their fertility cycle by the time of the 1991 Census, it is possible to address both the issue of how much families responded to the price change in the short run as well as the question of whether the cohorts which did respond in the short run showed a subsequent decrease in fertility later on. Whether there remains a net effect or not on fertility will inform us on the ‘true’ permanent effect of such an implicitly pro-natalist policy. » (p. 373) The results show that, « [...] starting in the mid-1970s, women in Quebec ‘brought forward’ their fertility decisions but they eventually had the same number of babies that they would have had in the absence of any intervention. » (p. 373)