1. Objectifs

Intentions :
Cette étude explore les effets de la fécondité sur le succès reproductif de la population de la vallée du Saint-Laurent pendant les XVIIe et XVIIIe siècles.

2. Méthode

Échantillon/Matériau :
«The data are based on the demographic history of 471,412 individuals who lived in Quebec during European settlement in the region. The data are based on the reconstructed genealogy of the parish registers of the Saint Lawrence Valley in Quebec, as provided by Le Programme de Recherche en Démographie Historique at the University of Montreal.» (p. 856)

Type de traitement des données :
Analyse statistique

3. Résumé

«This research identifies several mechanisms that contributed to the importance of moderate fecundity for long-run reproductive success. While individuals with lower fecundity had fewer children, the observed hump-shaped effect of fecundity on long-run reproductive success reflects the beneficial effects of lower fecundity on various measures of child quality and thus on the reproductive success of each child. In particular, the analysis establishes that lower fecundity indeed had: [a] positive effect on the marriageability of children; [a] negative effect on the age of marriage; and [a] positive effect on the literacy of children. Thus, despite the positive effect of fecundity on the number of children, its adverse effect on child quality and the reproductive success of each child contributed to generating the hump-shaped relationship between fecundity and long-run reproductive success. […] Evidence from preindustrial Quebec suggests that the forces of natural selection favoured individuals characterized by moderate fecundity. While higher fecundity was associated with a larger number of children, moderate fecundity maximized the number of descendants after several generations, reflecting the beneficial effect of lower fecundity on various measures of child quality.» (p. 856)