1. Objectifs

Intentions :
«In this paper, [the authors’ goal is] to substantiate the hypothesis that the epidemiologic transition was an important factor in the unfolding of the baby boom in Quebec.» (p. 315)

2. Méthode

Échantillon/Matériau :
Les auteurs utilisent un modèle de microsimulation développé par Statistique Canada pour évaluer les impacts de la mortalité, de la nuptialité, de la fertilité et de l’immigration sur la démographie et la dynamique du baby-boom au Québec.

Type de traitement des données :
Analyse statistique

3. Résumé

Results show in particular that «the impact of mortality on the total number of births observed during the baby boom is truly remarkable. Between 1896 and the boom […], more than half the road to the theoretical maximum number of births […] had been travelled with respect to the role of mortality. Had mortality rates remained at their 1896 levels, the total number of births occurring between 1945 and 1964 would have been 30 per cent lower.» (p. 312) Furthermore «the increase in nuptiality during the first half of the twentieth century increased the number of births during the boom, and the nuptiality scenarios that lead to the highest numbers of births are those of the cohorts born after 1930.» (p. 312) «Finally, immigrants coming to Quebec after the Second World War had a smaller but significant impact on the total number of births during the boom. Had they not come, the total number of births would have been over 160,000 lower, representing 14 per cent of the total difference.» (p. 315) Ces résultats viennent corroborer l’hypothèse des auteurs selon laquelle la transition épidémiologique est un facteur important qui influence le développement du baby-boom au Québec.