1. Objectifs

Intentions :
«We take advantage of the concurrent diffusion of unmarried cohabitation and union breakdown among French-speaking Quebeckers to examine whether family background (having grown up with unmarried parents and parental separation) and religion (reporting a denomination and religious attendance) have been key factors (intermediate variables) in the diffusion of conjugal instability or have been different consequences of a process of normative change unfolding across cohorts.» (p. 783)

Questions/Hypothèses :
«In this paper we focus on two substantive questions and one methodological problem: [...] Has family background, namely not having lived with both parents until age 15 and having grown up with unmarried parents, been a key factor – an intermediate variable – in the diffusion of conjugal instability, or have such childhood events and the occurrence of union breakdown in later life been two different consequences of a process of normative change unfolding across cohorts? [...] Were religious affiliation and religious attendance, which decreased across cohorts, similarly related to generational change? [...] How can the hazard of breakdown of marriage and of unmarried cohabitation be analysed simultaneously in a context where unmarried cohabitation is replacing marriage as the entry into the first union and marriage becomes an optional second step for most couples?» (p. 784)

2. Méthode

Échantillon/Matériau :
«We use a subsample of 2,265 first unions from the 2011 Canadian General Social Survey.» (p. 783) Le sous-échantillon est composé de francophones qui résident au Québec.

Instruments :
Questionnaire

Type de traitement des données :
Analyse statistique

3. Résumé

Results show that «[t]he effect of having lived with unmarried parents behaves as a spurious correlation: It disappears when controlling birth cohort. The proportion of children whose parents have never been married increases from the older birth cohorts to the younger, as does the hazard of breakdown, but having lived with unmarried parents has no effect on children’s marital stability. Not having lived with both parents until age 15 decreases marital stability for men. This effect is constant and robust. Having parents who lived together without being married has a gross effect, and this effect increases when controlling parents’ separation. [T]his would suggest that unmarried parents are somewhat less likely to separate but that having unmarried parents makes male offspring more prone to separate, which is very unlikely. Actually, having had parents who lived together without being married loses its effect on separation when controlling cohort. This suggests that the apparent causal structure involving parents’ separation and parents’ unmarried cohabitation is spurious, as both become more common across cohorts. […] Religious affiliation and practice, although they both decrease from the oldest to the youngest birth cohorts, do have a straightforward and constant effect on the hazard of breakdown.» (p. 804)