1. Objectifs

Intentions :
«In this study we examine the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and family structure in Canada. First, we use available vital statistics data and unemployment rates, comparable to that used in recent US studies, to examine flows into legal marriage and divorce.[...] Second, to add to our understanding of family formation we examine the relationship between male unemployment rates and the portion of individuals that are married (or common-law) or divorced (or separated) […] Third, we are interested in understanding what alternative types of families individuals are forming if getting married is less likely during downturns.» (p. 3-4)

2. Méthode

Échantillon/Matériau :
«Our primary data source for this study is the Canadian Labour Force Survey (LFS). We make use of the monthly microdata files of the LFS from 1976 to 2011. The survey covers the civilian, non-institutionalized population aged 15 years and over and is the official source for unemployment rates.» (p. 8)

Type de traitement des données :
Analyse statistique

3. Résumé

«The results of our study suggest that business cycle fluctuations have a strong and significant effect on marriage flows. However, in contrast to US studies, there is not a significant relationship between the business cycle and divorce flows. The results based on stock measures indicate that increases in men’s unemployment rates are associated with a decline in the stock of married individuals, an increase in divorced individuals, and no change in the stock of individuals that have never married. The relationship between the stock of individuals in different family types and the business cycle depends on the age group studied. [...] Overall, the results suggest the decline in marriages formed during a recession is largely driven by a decline in remarriages rather than first marriages.» (p. 4)